US Employment: what to think of it?
Today decent NFP + Household Survey US employment numbers were released together with not-so-bad Unemployment Claims #s.
1/ CARES Act only works in full for those who hired workers before June 30th. There’s an incentive for hires, not firing up to last week.
2/ US New Covid19 cases bottomed mid June and are now at all-time-highs and accelerating in a reasonably fast clip relative to the prior peak in April
3/ Americans more worried
Considering the above, where will US employment stabilize from here?
Here is a chart of “Permanent Job Losers”: curiously the MoM edged up, with new high in aggregate “Permanent Job Losers”.
We also saw Initial Jobless Claims fall little and remaining > 1m /week, with Continuing Claims still moving higher. And the levels are respectively 1.5x-1.9x of levels in mid-2009, And 5x and 9.5x respectively of what they were in same period 2019 (NSA).
California’s Initial Claims # represent nearly 20% of all Jobless Claims in the US. Here’s a 2wk moving average of their data (which is also hard to trust given news that there’s been issues with processing all the data)
Here’s how response to employment surveys has changed since COVID:
Yes. It fell again this month. pic.twitter.com/vZCTJzvsj3
— Ernie Tedeschi (@ernietedeschi) July 2, 2020
And that is with some of the stimulus that has already filtered through the economy. Then on July 31st, absent action from the US Congress, expanded unemployment benefits roll off.
Hard to believe there’ll be no more permanent damage from Feb2020 levels in eco activity, employment.
Are you going back to 85% normal life in the coming 2 months? I’m not.