Are all Good News in?

Markets only top when there’s no one left to enter it. I wasn’t trading in 1987 (I was 5) or 2000, but for me it feels we’re getting closer to a tipping point. COVID came and [...]

0 Read More

Brazilian inflation and the BRL

In the past few years the correlation between inflation and changes in currency levels has shifted many times from positive to negative. Unless there’s the expectation that Brazil [...]

0 Read More

Brazil – Losing (a lot of) Steam

This should have been posted weeks ago, but I’ll leave a quick note here while I find time to write something more structured. My macro optimism with Brazil has dwindled since 4Q19 and, [...]

0 Read More

One Chart to Rule Them All: Update

US Budget Deficit chart updated below. From an outside-recessions increase of ~0.6%/GDP per year to +9% increase due to COVID19 programs. A chart with global deficits could be useful now too. The [...]

0 Read More

US Employment: what to think of it?

Today decent NFP + Household Survey US employment numbers were released together with not-so-bad Unemployment Claims #s. Thoughts: 1/ CARES Act only works in full for those who hired workers [...]

0 Read More