Investing

Markets only top when there’s no one left to enter it. I wasn’t trading in 1987 (I was 5) or 2000, but for me it feels we’re getting closer to a tipping point. COVID came and [...]

In the past few years the correlation between inflation and changes in currency levels has shifted many times from positive to negative. Unless there’s the expectation that Brazil [...]

This should have been posted weeks ago, but I’ll leave a quick note here while I find time to write something more structured. My macro optimism with Brazil has dwindled since 4Q19 and, [...]

When I see the chart below, some of what comes to mind is: – Pension funds’ promises wildly inadequate – Retirees are royally screwed, but don’t think about it on a daily [...]

Watch for banking rules that determine that banks MUST lend above a certain – above current! – level. In late 80s Japan the BOJ/MoF team had financial institutions shove credit out in [...]

So inflation is -5% and 10y USTs trade at -3.50% yield. That means it is a good deal to buy USTs for a real yield of +1.5%. A country with debt only in its own currency could just print its own [...]

How would you like your savings served?

US Budget Deficit chart updated below. From an outside-recessions increase of ~0.6%/GDP per year to +9% increase due to COVID19 programs. A chart with global deficits could be useful now too. The [...]

Today decent NFP + Household Survey US employment numbers were released together with not-so-bad Unemployment Claims #s. Thoughts: 1/ CARES Act only works in full for those who hired workers [...]

BRL cheap or expensive? Below a little histogram of distribution of 2y nominal rates vs YoY realized headline CPI in Brazil x US. It is basically at an all time low. It’s has never been [...]