Brazilian inflation and the BRL

In the past few years the correlation between inflation and changes in currency levels has shifted many times from positive to negative. Unless there’s the expectation that Brazil [...]

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Brazil – Losing (a lot of) Steam

This should have been posted weeks ago, but I’ll leave a quick note here while I find time to write something more structured. My macro optimism with Brazil has dwindled since 4Q19 and, [...]

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One Chart to Rule Them All: Update

US Budget Deficit chart updated below. From an outside-recessions increase of ~0.6%/GDP per year to +9% increase due to COVID19 programs. A chart with global deficits could be useful now too. The [...]

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US Employment: what to think of it?

Today decent NFP + Household Survey US employment numbers were released together with not-so-bad Unemployment Claims #s. Thoughts: 1/ CARES Act only works in full for those who hired workers [...]

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Brazil: Credit Risk or Not? Buy bonds.

Below is a chart of: 1/ Brazil CPI Headline + CPI Services 2/ USDBRL 3/ Unemployment Rate (%) And then there is chart of: 1/ CPI Headline + longer-dated swap rates 2/ Longer-dated swap rates x [...]

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