Brazilian inflation and the BRL

In the past few years the correlation between inflation and changes in currency levels has shifted many times from positive to negative.

Unless there’s the expectation that Brazil won’t be able to produce what it consumes, having to supply it all from offshore, with unemployment back at all time highs (inverted on the chart), Services inflation cratering… where will inflation come from? Now an extra ~90bp since just a few days ago in longer-end of curve. A lot of carry+roll.

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